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Especially at this time of year, with the weather hinting at spring one day
and smacking us with snow the next, a lot of people daydream about picking
up the phone and booking a last-minute cruise to someplace warm. The
Caribbean. Greece. Anywhere,
just so it's warm.
Well, it might not be that easy.
"In June 2003 you could book as little as a week prior to departure and
get a choice of cabins at good rates," said Charlie Funk, co-owner of
Nashville-based agency Just Cruisin' Plus. But he said now "the cruise
industry is stronger and you have to book far in advance if you want a
particular ship, date and cabin during peak cruise travel months."
Repeat after me: supply and demand. When the cruise lines have more ships
than they can fill, prices are low and availability high. When demand is
high and availability low, they can jack prices up, cross their arms and
just watch the lines form. That's the current situation.
"The booking curve has lengthened substantially," said Carnival chairman
Mickey Arison, "which provides the opportunity to execute our pricing
strategies to maximize revenue yields."
Translation? Expect to pay more, and to plan further ahead than you might
like.
For several years cruise pricing was locked in a reverse bubble, with
rates kept low by a confluence of the cruise industry's pre-9/11 building
spree and the public's post-9/11 travel jitters. With no one wanting to plan
trips far in advance, the cruise industry watched as the lines' new
megaships remained underbooked. As sailing dates approached, they routinely
offered bigger and bigger discounts to fill them.
Well, those days are over. Whereas the major cruise lines launched some
65 new ships between 2000 and the end of 2004, only three are scheduled to
be launched this year, with another six on the way in 2006. At the same
time, the total number of North American passengers jumped from 6.8 million
in 2000 to approximately 10 million in 2004. Industry-wide, the average
occupancy of ships last year was approximately 104 percent - the 4 percent
representing extra passengers (usually children) occupying additional berths
in a normally double-occupancy cabin.
"Demand this year is well on the way to absorbing all the new capacity
launched in 2004 and 2005," said Funk. "And if the cruise industry grows at
even half its 20-year historic average, it is easy to envision a scenario
similar to that of the mid '80s to early '90s, when demand far exceeded
supply and those who didn't book a year in advance didn't go."
Sorry, consumer, but the cruise biz has become a seller's market. This
year, expect weeklong mainstream cruises to cost about $100 more per person
than they did a year ago. Don't count on travel agents to offer steep
discounts to attract customers either. Cruise lines now tend to offer the
same rate to all agencies and have begun cracking down on ones that
advertise lower deals.
Lessons for the day: Plan ahead, be flexible about your choice of ship,
and think seriously about off-peak sailing dates.
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